Yes, but the effects of that are very overblown in every economy. Even in South Korea, which doesn’t have a strong safety net especially for the elderly, their economy is chugging along okay.
I wouldn’t say it’s an outlier, no. Don’t get me wrong, these types of demographic issues DO have a serious effect on economies, I’m just saying that the effects that many project for china are incredibly exaggerated and come from a false understanding of the stagnation in Japan and some European countries. China’s economy isn’t going to collapse because of demographic change, I don’t think it will stagnate either. Will it slow down in growth because of it? Yes, I think so.
South Korea has had a shrinking birthrate for the past 15 years, and it’s even exceeded UN estimates on declining populations and birth rates. It’s elderly are rapidly growing, currently nearly a quarter of SKs population are elderly. By the most negative estimates, it will experience seriously devastating demographic collapse within the next 15-20 years if things don’t change. But the “outlier” in SK is that despite all this, it’s economy is still growing and is still projected to grow, unlike Japan, a country who has and still is going through similar issues. This is mostly because SK has had a steady stream of heavy foreign investment since it’s inception as a nation, and there are massive corporations that soak up this investment and basically control everything about the countries economy and politics. There’s a Korean word for these companies but I forgot it, but they’re basically like the old Japanese monopolies that had significant influence over the Japanese empire.
As with most capitalist countries, the poverty in Korea and falling standards of living are hidden by the massive growth of the richest in the country. I’m sure the demographic collapse is going to hit regular Koreans the hardest, but the economy, and the oligarchs will likely chug along fine.
Ha, no I was referring to the Korean term used for the massive companies in Korea. In Japan the word is/was the Zaibatsu, there’s an equivalent word in Korean. Although I might be talking out of my ass idk.
Yes, but I don’t know of much solutions that could “solve” the issue. Because china has such a massive population, encouraging birthrate growth probably isn’t a great idea. China is already spending a lot of money on food imports to feed it’s population because domestic produce simply isn’t enough (it’s also cheaper to import food), this also applies to other goods as well. The massive boom in population in the early 20th century put a large strain on the economy, and was the primary reason for the one child policy. I think planning for having to account for a less productive, smaller labour force in the future through a greater focus on more productive machinery and automation, and to make robust safety nets and social services for the elderly so they aren’t so reliant on their children is all you can really do. China, like South Korea, is still going to be able to soak in foreign investment, and it’s economy is still going to grow. And unlike SK, it’s demographic projections aren’t as drastic. I think it’s inevitable there will be slow down in china’s growth, but making sure that slowdown isn’t drastic is the goal.
elderly care is itself an industry, isn’t it? perhaps needing younger labourers to care for them isn’t as drastic an issue as it may seem. it still presents an opportunity cost, but as you say, automation is another tactic.
the main consequence is having so many elderly people dependent on the younger generation, cutting down on overall productivity.
Yes, but the effects of that are very overblown in every economy. Even in South Korea, which doesn’t have a strong safety net especially for the elderly, their economy is chugging along okay.
could you elaborate on sk? could it be an outlier?
I wouldn’t say it’s an outlier, no. Don’t get me wrong, these types of demographic issues DO have a serious effect on economies, I’m just saying that the effects that many project for china are incredibly exaggerated and come from a false understanding of the stagnation in Japan and some European countries. China’s economy isn’t going to collapse because of demographic change, I don’t think it will stagnate either. Will it slow down in growth because of it? Yes, I think so.
South Korea has had a shrinking birthrate for the past 15 years, and it’s even exceeded UN estimates on declining populations and birth rates. It’s elderly are rapidly growing, currently nearly a quarter of SKs population are elderly. By the most negative estimates, it will experience seriously devastating demographic collapse within the next 15-20 years if things don’t change. But the “outlier” in SK is that despite all this, it’s economy is still growing and is still projected to grow, unlike Japan, a country who has and still is going through similar issues. This is mostly because SK has had a steady stream of heavy foreign investment since it’s inception as a nation, and there are massive corporations that soak up this investment and basically control everything about the countries economy and politics. There’s a Korean word for these companies but I forgot it, but they’re basically like the old Japanese monopolies that had significant influence over the Japanese empire.
As with most capitalist countries, the poverty in Korea and falling standards of living are hidden by the massive growth of the richest in the country. I’m sure the demographic collapse is going to hit regular Koreans the hardest, but the economy, and the oligarchs will likely chug along fine.
I think the words for Korean consortiums are among the likes of “you can’t avoid tax, death and Samsung when born in Korea”
Ha, no I was referring to the Korean term used for the massive companies in Korea. In Japan the word is/was the Zaibatsu, there’s an equivalent word in Korean. Although I might be talking out of my ass idk.
That equivalent word is chaebol (sounds kind of like jay-bol or chay-bol)
Ah that’s what I was looking for, thanks.
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would china be able to deal with it about as well?
Yes, but I don’t know of much solutions that could “solve” the issue. Because china has such a massive population, encouraging birthrate growth probably isn’t a great idea. China is already spending a lot of money on food imports to feed it’s population because domestic produce simply isn’t enough (it’s also cheaper to import food), this also applies to other goods as well. The massive boom in population in the early 20th century put a large strain on the economy, and was the primary reason for the one child policy. I think planning for having to account for a less productive, smaller labour force in the future through a greater focus on more productive machinery and automation, and to make robust safety nets and social services for the elderly so they aren’t so reliant on their children is all you can really do. China, like South Korea, is still going to be able to soak in foreign investment, and it’s economy is still going to grow. And unlike SK, it’s demographic projections aren’t as drastic. I think it’s inevitable there will be slow down in china’s growth, but making sure that slowdown isn’t drastic is the goal.
elderly care is itself an industry, isn’t it? perhaps needing younger labourers to care for them isn’t as drastic an issue as it may seem. it still presents an opportunity cost, but as you say, automation is another tactic.