jeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 7 months agoBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comexternal-linkmessage-square27fedilinkarrow-up166arrow-down119
arrow-up147arrow-down1external-linkBiden is on track to beat inflation and lose the presidencywww.vox.comjeffw@lemmy.world to politics @lemmy.world · 7 months agomessage-square27fedilink
minus-squareistanbullulinkfedilinkarrow-up11arrow-down2·7 months ago538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
minus-squarecbarrick@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up9·7 months agoNate Silver is no longer at 538. There are different people running the models these days.
minus-squareShunkW@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up6arrow-down3·7 months agoWasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
minus-squareSkepticpunk@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up10·edit-27 months agoNo. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
minus-squarecbarrick@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up7arrow-down1·7 months agoEveryone was wrong in 2016. 538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere. And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
minus-squareistanbullulinkfedilinkarrow-up1·7 months ago538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.
538 has been reliable in the past elections. They show an almost-tied race with Trump slightly ahead: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Nate Silver is no longer at 538.
There are different people running the models these days.
Wasn’t 538 wrong about Trump winning in 2016 though?
No. 538 gave Trump the best chances out of any model, which Nate was criticized heavily for. 1-in-3 chances, which is what Trump had in 2016, are still pretty likely.
Everyone was wrong in 2016.
538 was the least wrong of any model anywhere.
And Nate Silver was ridiculed at the time for giving Trump such a high chance of winning, before the election.
538 gave Trump and Clinton similar chances. They essentially called the race too close to call.