This might be it.

It was /u/Cook_0612:

I’ve been saying Lukashenko is smart from the start. His buffoon act is just that: an act. This is a guy that’s managed to work with the conditions he started with pretty masterfully considering his own political objectives from his first days in power.

Not a lot of people know this, but at one point Lukashenko was an anti-corruption crusader and a potential Russian President, but when it became clear that those things weren’t going to work out he shifted tone and became Putin’s courtier. And in that role, he’s managed to maintain both power in Belarus and Belarussian autonomy (as much as could be realistically obtained without military separation from Russia) for the entire time he’s been in control.

Whenever he needed something from Moscow, he’d talk about Russification and joining Russia before eventually making some kind of excuse or mistake. When Putin overstepped, he was not afraid to arrest his agents and reemphasize Belarussian identity. When his power was threatened by his own Maidan, he got Putin to put it down, and in return all he had to do was host the Russians’ invasion, not actually take part. Oh, and let’s not forget the whole, ‘I “accidentally” reveal all the Russian axes of advance’ picture. Lukashenko probably considered the invasion moronic from the start, and just like Kazakhstan he’s not exactly hurt by Russians getting fed into a meatgrinder and losing influence.

The biggest danger to him right now would be Belarussian veterans from Ukraine metastasizing into the core of a new movement against him, and if he wants to survive that he’s not going to throw troops into Ukraine for Putin.

The comments about him getting good trade deals and economic concessions I think I got from other commenters. There’s a lot of people that know about this.

This guy talks about Lukashenko a lot and how he has and is maneuvering: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/xxu0gi/reason_i_should_not_be_president/irf4hs6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=2

If search for 'Lukashenko union" in the subreddit you’ll see a lot of comments talking about this same thing. /u/BigFreakingZombie shows up in a lot of the results, so you could ask him to elaborate.

When I say there can only be one I don’t mean it literally. Obviously there can be more than one. That’s the point of my post: there is more than 1 NCD Lemmy. But with social networks there’s a network effect. That tends to consolidate most users in one space. People don’t want the hassle of bouncing back and forth between 3 different NCDs. I just made 2 posts on bothe Lemmys and on reddit and it was tedious. I’d rather just settle on one, but I want to know which one. If this one and only one that is officially endorsed by the reddit NCD mods team then that will likely result in this one being the main refuge.

I have a mastodon account and a threads account, but I don’t use them. I use twitter still because most of the people I follow are there and I really don’t want to flip between 3 apps. I’m on the wait-list of bluesky and post, but I probably won’t use those much until a critical mass of people switch to one one of them.

So basically he just points out that Lukashenko in the past has wanted to unite moscovia and Belarus and become ruler over that union. When the powers in moscow put putin in power he was disappointed, but he still wants to rule the both of them. Putin also wants to unite the 2 and Luka has been dangling the possibility of them becoming one state to get putin/moscovia to support him and grant Belarus concessions and good deals on stuff. I don’t remember all the details but I think he said one of the things Belarus gets is either hydrocarbons or some other natural resource for below market rates and Belarus has been taking advantage of that by reselling it at market prices.

However, since Luka keeps dangling the possibility of a union they get away with it. He’s getting way more out of moscovia than they are getting out of Belarus, meanwhile Luka just bides his time and uses moscovia to help keep him in power.

To what? They guy with the Lukashenko theory? It was a while ago and I didn’t bookmark it or anything. I’ll try to dredge it up. No guarantees though

I am subscribed to both. I’m posting to both plus reddit which is just annoying