a proponent of DRS, a proponent of GME, a proponent of the fediverse and freedom of communication.

gmetimeline.org

  • 72 Posts
  • 192 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • it may very well be one of the last good opportunities to get some GME for cheap.

    Either GameStop achieves full-year profitability, or they don’t.

    GameStop’s opponents (those hedge funds and other participants holding a short position seeking the stock price to go down), and their useful bought and paid for media puppets, are well aware of the situation we are in, probably even more aware than most GME shareholders.

    Full-year profitability is the target. It’s the thing that most shareholders and opponents have their mind on, in terms of material things that matter that could change the narrative, change the dynamic, and ultimately lead towards true price discovery.

    If GameStop fails to achieve full year profitability, (e.g. net quarterly earnings for 2023 Q4 to be any amount less than positive ~ $57 million), then this will give the opponents an opportunity to pile on negative sentiment and hit the price down. “After 3 years in control of the company, Ryan Cohen and team fail to achieve widely-expected profitability, stock price down XX %”. As a shareholder I obviously hope that this is not the outcome, but I’ll be happy with any general improvements to the company’s financial standing.

    but I think that this is a very achievable target. Net positive $57 million for 2023 Q4 will give full-year profitability for FY 2023. Any number above that is a major success, and completely feasible. Not guaranteed by any means, but realistically achievable.

    And if this is achieved, then it shoots a giant hole in the persistent negative media narrative that has been put upon GameStop these past few years by dishonest and manipulative wall street incumbents and their dishonest and manipulative friends in the financial media.

    in the scenario of full-year profitability, some positives with respect to an investment in GME:

    • Full-year profitability. This would be the first year in 6 years that GameStop would achieve this profitability. The last time was in FY 2017. Undeniable evidence of successful turnaround efforts.
    • cash in the bank to the tune of around $1 billion, unless significant amounts are spent on something such as an investment or a merger/acquisition, which would itself likely be positive news.
    • no debt* (except perhaps the negligible French loan. it would be nice to be able to say no debt, definitively, without an asterisk. will this loan still be outstanding in any amount?).
    • The video gaming industry is a $200 billion per year industry, and growing, larger than movies, music, and books combined.
    • GameStop continues to make improvements to their business including for example in e-commerce, internal processes, new ventures

    Obviously, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. GameStop still faces headwinds and has many competitors. In the long term, GameStop also needs to dramatically grow top-line revenue if it ever wants to become the giant that many shareholders believe it to be. These are not small accomplishments.

    In the short term, in the face of the achievement of full-year profitability, and all the other positives that GameStop has going for it, how can the media sentiment towards GameStop continue to be so negative and cynical? Surely they will try, but it will become increasingly untenable to try and spin negativity about a situation that is very obviously positive. The negative media narrative is there to try and prevent additional investors from ever considering GME as a valid investment. But at some point the truth of the fundamentals become more powerful than the lies of the media. All it will take is some significant buying pressure and the price could break out.

    Who knows what will happen.

    I hope GameStop reports $57 million or more in net earnings for Q4 2023. We’ll find out in less than 2 weeks.


  • i disagree with the assertion that heat lamp has been debunked, though it seems like some people really want people to necessarily believe this to be true and final.

    put aside the name “heatlamp theory” and address 2 of the main points:

      1. Plan is not DRS. “Plan is not DRS” is not debunked, just because GameStop rejected the shareholder proposals, or that there were issues with the shareholder proposals. The simple fact remains, that plan shares are not DRS shares.
      1. On some DRS record dates, there have been large spikes in volume. Heat lamp offers a possible explanation for how / why. It is a theory, and it isn’t necessarily totally right. But, if not right, then how else are these volume spikes explained? To my knowledge, nobody else has put together a thoughtful explanation as to why volume of GME traded spikes on some but not all DRS record dates.

    Okay, so heat lamp as originally proposed might not be the fully accurate explanation for the volume spikes. So what are the alternative explanations then?

    Something worth noting is that there seems to be a very effortful push to authoritatively declare “DEBUNKED!” without explaining specifically how it is debunked, and without providing any alternative explanations.

    • Observation: GME volume spikes on some DRS record dates.
    • Theory: “i propose that the reason why this happens is because…”
    • Opposition: “Heatlamp is definitively debunked and there is no other explanation!”

    Plan is not DRS is a true statement and is not debunked.
    GME has unusual trading volume on some DRS record dates, this is another true observation that is not debunked.

    One theory that attempts to tie these things together might not be completely accurate but to my awareness is the most thoughtful explanation that exists thus far. I’d love to see alternative explanations but I don’t know of any. Superstonk mods by consensus are opposed to the notion that there is any validity to heatlamp theory, yet offer absolutely nothing else as an alternative.

    TLDR: “heatlamp is debunked” is just another example of narrative control being perpetrated by a group of moderators of the largest GME internet community. More information is needed to make any kinds of authoritative claims.









  • some more data going back to fiscal year 2005.

    Fiscal Year Revenue Net Income Store Count Revenue Per Store Net Income Per Store 10-K
    2005 $3,091,783,000 $100,784,000 4490 $688,593.10 $22,446.33 link
    2006 $5,318,900,000 $158,250,000 4778 $1,113,206.36 $33,120.55 link
    2007 $7,093,962,000 $288,291,000 5264 $1,347,637.16 $54,766.53 link
    2008 $8,805,897,000 $398,282,000 6207 $1,418,704.20 $64,166.59 link
    2009 $9,077,997,000 $377,265,000 6450 $1,407,441.40 $58,490.70 link
    2010 $9,473,700,000 $408,000,000 6670 $1,420,344.83 $61,169.42 link
    2011 $9,550,500,000 $339,900,000 6683 $1,429,073.77 $50,860.39 link
    2012 $8,886,700,000 -$269,700,000 6602 $1,346,061.80 $40,851.26 link
    2013 $9,039,500,000 $354,200,000 6675 $1,354,232.21 $53,063.67 link
    2014 $9,296,000,000 $393,100,000 6690 $1,389,536.62 $58,759.34 link
    2015 $9,363,800,000 $402,800,000 7117 $1,315,694.82 $56,596.88 link
    2016 $8,607,900,000 $353,200,000 7535 $1,142,388.85 $46,874.59 link
    2017 $9,224,600,000 $34,700,000 7276 $1,267,811.98 $4,769.10 link
    2018 $8,285,300,000 -$673,000,000 5830 $1,421,149.23 $115,437.39 link
    2019 $6,466,000,000 -$470,900,000 5509 $1,173,715.74 $85,478.31 link
    2020 $5,089,800,000 -$215,300,000 4816 $1,056,852.16 $44,705.15 link
    2021 $6,010,700,000 -$381,300,000 4573 $1,314,388.80 $83,380.71 link
    2022 $5,927,200,000 -$313,100,000 4413 $1,343,122.59 $70,949.47 link








  • all in all it was a decent movie.

    “but it doesn’t talk about [insert thing here] so therefore it was not good!”

    i disagree with that notion. no such thing as bad press, and all that, and this movie isn’t even bad press. it was fun and entertaining, which is typically the purpose of most movies. it was not a fact-based documentary, it’s hollywood entertainment that is shining a light on an important story.

    i do find it funny how much hate the movie is getting in superstonk.

    In any kind of situation, sorry if I sound like a broken record here, but I always ask myself: who benefits?

    We know that Public Relations is something that exists as an industry and as a component of businesses. Businesses use PR in order to shape public perception, away from something negative and sensitive to the business and towards something positive and helpful for the business.

    E.g.: what did tobacco / cigarette companies do when research started coming out demonstrating that cigarettes caused cancer? Were those companies honest and forthright, and admit to this true reality even though admitting it would hurt their sales? Or did they do everything in their ability to obfuscate the truth and confuse people, because those actions led to an outcome of continued profits for the company?

    We know that wall street and other industries make use of shill farms. Shill farms are basically the modern evolution of PR. If you are a wealthy and powerful incumbent and you are not using shill farms, you will fall behind and lose control of the narrative.

    so, in a contest of “promote Dumb Money because it brings positive attention to GameStop”, versus “Dumb Money sucks and was bad and was not good and I hated it and it didn’t properly represent the story”, which one of these thought processes is helpful to GME investors and which one is not?

    And in consideration of that, why is it that superstonk is so loaded with antagonism towards this movie?


  • I think you might be right, though it is impossible to know for sure.

    Like how the price started pumping a few days prior to December 6 earnings because those earnings were going to be decent and cause a positive reaction. So they get ahead of the positive reaction by preemptively pumping it beforehand for the purpose of preventing or slowing any momentum. This is what i suspect happened and may happen again in March of this year prior to earnings date.


  • Another kind of example of the censorship and confusion on this topic that continues to happen to this very day. It is for this reason why the subject needs to be repeatedly discussed and understood by as many GME shareholders as possible, because to this very day they continue to censor and confuse this topic to varying degrees.

    January 23, 2024: a post that provides good information about the distinction between DRS and DSPP numbers gets removed from superstonk.

    Even if well intentioned, posts like these ultimately are encouraging selling of shares, turning off autobuys, and sowing distrust in ComputerShare. The sources provided don’t back up these claims and how one person is interpreting this does not mean it’s fact. Please do your own due diligence when it comes to making decisions for your investment. Rule 6.

    Why is this topic so contentious? Why has there been a sustained campaign to censor and confuse this specific topic, the topic of the distinction of DSPP and DRS, the fact that plan is not DRS?

    Who benefits if it is crystal clear and all GME investors understand the truth? GME investors benefit. Who benefits if it is confusing and controversial and omitted (censored) from conversation? Not GME investors.


  • Great post. Insightful but not surprising.

    From the perspective of a money-seeking billionaire like this, everything in the world is only as valuable as its measurement in dollars. Really, this type of behavior is completely normal and maybe even “smart”, from the perspective of a capitalist system that rewards greed above all else.

    If I am not mistaken, I also read that both Meta and Google, during the big hiring spree of 2021 / 2022, deliberately over-hired thousands of employees with no real work for them, just so that the competitors couldn’t get those employees.

    Imagine having so much excessive money that you can pay thousands of employees just to do nothing, simply so that your competitors might not get them.

    Corporate behavior in modern capitalism is pretty fucked up. It’s great if you are one of the few ultra wealthy individuals and all you care about is making more money than you even know what to do with. But beyond them, it’s a ruthless and unfair system that will spit you out without a second thought, if it means some rich bastard can make even more money.