It isn’t too-late to save civilization itself, but it definitely is too-late to save nearly-all of this kind of “civilization”.
I’ve compiled a list of links which show the FACTUAL planet-changing, gleaned from evidence-itself.
Know that what follows is the current version of this information, as I keep finding more/better pieces of fact, to amend it with:
Notice that this isn’t making-simulations-and-tweaking-them-until-they-look-like-they-match-evidence-that-we’re-including,
instead, this is gleaning the natural powerlaw underlying
atmospheric-CO2 -> consequent-planetary-equilibrium-temperature,
itself, from the historical evidence.
This is the ONLY model that isn’t pushed-on the evidence,
it is only taken FROM the evidence/historical-fact.
280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^1 == planetary +1C == 302.5ppm CO2
280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^5 == planetary +5C == 411.5ppm CO2
280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^8 == planetary +8C == 518.5ppm CO2
280ppm CO2 * 9th-root-of-2^9 == planetary +9C == 560ppm CO2
We’re currently in the 417…421ppm range of CO2, alone.
Factoring in the excess 1.3-1.4ppm methane, only,
NOT including ANY of the other greenhouse-gasses we’re producing,
brings it up to 8-9C planetary heating equilibrium,
using methane’s 20y CO2 equivalent factor of 82.5x.
526…534.5ppm CO2-equivalent, with the methane, only, factored-in.
You can see what the historical-fact planet-temperature was, for that value, and it is nowhere near 1.5C or 2.5C, it was, when that level of atmospheric greenhouse-gas actually occurred, between +8C & +9C.
( & if it lasts longer than 20y, on average, then that factor should be higher. )
Notice that the powerlaw I link to, above, and this usatoday article, state the SAME THING.
That it is HISTORICAL FACT that we are in the +5C to +9C range, not the +1.5C makebelieve that governments are devout/loyal to.
And for all who call Nature’s many underlying & discoverable powerlaws “not science”,
I’ve read that there is a powerlaw underlying:
lightning ( frequency vs intensity, iirc )
flooding ( ditto )
droughts ( ditto )
the stock market ( bubbles & crashes, iirc )
liklihood of change in local climate
landslides
meteorites ( frequency vs destructive-power )
etc.
Anybody who wants to understand that powerlaws also underlie structural-strength,
simply understand Dave Gerr’s “Elements of Boat Strength”,
in which he identifies how to turn a “Scantling Number” for a particular boat ( the bigger the boat, according to specific parameters, the bigger the Sn ),
into the actual-strength-of-materials-for-that-specific-part,
through that-specific-part’s powerlaw.
IOW, you find the Sn for a boat,
and the set of powerlaws tells you exactly how much glass reinforcement-fiber, or wood, or aluminum, you need in every part of that boat, between 10’ & 100’ long.
Keel, bottom, lower topsides, upper topsides, deck, stringers, ring-frames, bulkheads, engine-mounts, under the mast, everything.
The powerlaws keep the proportions of strengths correct, for the difference-in-size of the boat.
( notice that this is Actuaries.org.uk! This is financial people, not the oil industry, of course, or politicians… but these people consider the financial risk! )
Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios – a warning for financial services
https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenarios
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
( that might possibly wipe-out much of humanity’s sea-food supply )
As the former chief scientist at NASA said, around when she was retiring,
Venus’s lethal runaway greenhouse condition IS a possible endstate for our planet.
No matter: same as any junkie, having to break their junk-dependency…
IF the junk-addiction is broken, it’ll be a deathmatch to decide it, either-way.
Humankind’s unconscious-ignorance would rather break this entire planet’s human-viability than yield to evidence,
and if that unconscious-ignorance wins, then our “legacy” will be simply showing the Universe that our ignorance was our rightful “king” and “lord”, and that it won, and our life/viability didn’t, it broke us.
Same as many addicts who die, fighting their junk-addiction, demonstrate.
Same, but on different scales, right?
It’ll take most of this century for humankind’s unconscious-mind to be engaged sufficiently-intensely for that survival-fight to get … pointed, though.
It isn’t too-late to save civilization itself, but it definitely is too-late to save nearly-all of this kind of “civilization”.
I’ve compiled a list of links which show the FACTUAL planet-changing, gleaned from evidence-itself.
Know that what follows is the current version of this information, as I keep finding more/better pieces of fact, to amend it with:
Notice that this isn’t making-simulations-and-tweaking-them-until-they-look-like-they-match-evidence-that-we’re-including,
instead, this is gleaning the natural powerlaw underlying atmospheric-CO2 -> consequent-planetary-equilibrium-temperature, itself, from the historical evidence.
This is the ONLY model that isn’t pushed-on the evidence, it is only taken FROM the evidence/historical-fact.
Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years https://www.nature.com/articles/nature19798
We’re currently in the 417…421ppm range of CO2, alone.
Factoring in the excess 1.3-1.4ppm methane, only, NOT including ANY of the other greenhouse-gasses we’re producing, brings it up to 8-9C planetary heating equilibrium, using methane’s 20y CO2 equivalent factor of 82.5x.
526…534.5ppm CO2-equivalent, with the methane, only, factored-in.
You can see what the historical-fact planet-temperature was, for that value, and it is nowhere near 1.5C or 2.5C, it was, when that level of atmospheric greenhouse-gas actually occurred, between +8C & +9C.
( & if it lasts longer than 20y, on average, then that factor should be higher. )
What’s worse? https://theconversation.com/frozen-methane-under-the-seabed-is-thawing-as-oceans-warm-and-things-are-worse-than-we-thought-216054
ANOTHER positive-feedback-loop.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2023/12/10/carbon-dioxide-levels-hit-14-million-year-high-what-to-know/71836796007/
Notice that the powerlaw I link to, above, and this usatoday article, state the SAME THING.
That it is HISTORICAL FACT that we are in the +5C to +9C range, not the +1.5C makebelieve that governments are devout/loyal to.
And for all who call Nature’s many underlying & discoverable powerlaws “not science”,
I’ve read that there is a powerlaw underlying:
Anybody who wants to understand that powerlaws also underlie structural-strength, simply understand Dave Gerr’s “Elements of Boat Strength”, in which he identifies how to turn a “Scantling Number” for a particular boat ( the bigger the boat, according to specific parameters, the bigger the Sn ), into the actual-strength-of-materials-for-that-specific-part, through that-specific-part’s powerlaw.
IOW, you find the Sn for a boat, and the set of powerlaws tells you exactly how much glass reinforcement-fiber, or wood, or aluminum, you need in every part of that boat, between 10’ & 100’ long.
Keel, bottom, lower topsides, upper topsides, deck, stringers, ring-frames, bulkheads, engine-mounts, under the mast, everything.
The powerlaws keep the proportions of strengths correct, for the difference-in-size of the boat.
Nature’s filled with powerlaws.
Here are some more not-makebelieving items.
Just Have A Think, Antarctica https://youtu.be/T0qRoeEcKtY
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
( notice that this is Actuaries.org.uk! This is financial people, not the oil industry, of course, or politicians… but these people consider the financial risk! ) Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios – a warning for financial services https://actuaries.org.uk/emperors-new-climate-scenarios
A safe operating space for humanity https://www.nature.com/articles/461472a
In Science, according to Karl Popper, & Richard Feynman, when the evidence contradicts your models/theories, those have been falsified. The powerlaw, above, isn’t falsified by this measurement, but all others, that I know-of, have been. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/antarctica-warming-much-faster-than-models-predicted-in-deeply-concerning-sign-for-sea-levels
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w ( that might possibly wipe-out much of humanity’s sea-food supply )
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38906-7
Subglacial discharge accelerates future retreat of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi9014
Youtube: Dr Gilbz ( who doesn’t know about the powerlaw? not yet, anyways ) https://youtu.be/8_BoZDS1gjU
Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01818-x
Just Have A Think https://youtu.be/T0qRoeEcKtY
Cold Blob https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob You can SEE where Greenland’s icewater is altering the planet’s systems!
2000 cubic km more ice melt anomaly in 2010 than in 1990, 4000 cubic km more ice melt anomaly in 2020 than in 1990, The curve looks exponential.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05002-0
As the former chief scientist at NASA said, around when she was retiring, Venus’s lethal runaway greenhouse condition IS a possible endstate for our planet.
No matter: same as any junkie, having to break their junk-dependency…
IF the junk-addiction is broken, it’ll be a deathmatch to decide it, either-way.
Humankind’s unconscious-ignorance would rather break this entire planet’s human-viability than yield to evidence, and if that unconscious-ignorance wins, then our “legacy” will be simply showing the Universe that our ignorance was our rightful “king” and “lord”, and that it won, and our life/viability didn’t, it broke us.
Same as many addicts who die, fighting their junk-addiction, demonstrate.
Same, but on different scales, right?
It’ll take most of this century for humankind’s unconscious-mind to be engaged sufficiently-intensely for that survival-fight to get … pointed, though.
_ /\ _
Thank you for all this, but I gotta ask. How long has this taken to compile so far? That’s a LOT of work to put into a Lemmy comment.
(I’m impressed!)