Will Chris win?
Looks very unlikely there will be any other result besides National/ACT majority. Without having to worry about other coalition partners, this will probably be our most right-wing government of the MMP era. A lot of the National caucus are pretty right-wing at heart (rather than Labour, where a lot of them are pretty centrist at heart). So ACT will probably get more wins out of the coalition agreement than you might expect. NACT should be able to keep the government running smoothly as it was under Key, meaning they will be odds on to win a second and probably third term.
Which means cost of living, inequality and environment/climate issues are all set to get substantially worse.
Woo fucking hoo.
Gotta love that for some reason a bunch of people have voted against their best interests. Think it’s time to reevaluate giving people decisions about their lives.
It does not end well.
I disagree, a lot of people seem to think having equal rights to any other NZer is in their best interests, and I think that’s a reasonable point of view.
Explain
No.
Fair
Cool, we get to watch an national/act government tonight, a no vote in Australia overnight and a genocide tomorrow
Don’t forget the Polish elections tomorrow! It has all the drama of a modern election!
Wait for the special votes. Back in 1999 - The Greens won 7 extra seats from special votes alone.
- A special voter
they have historically done very well from overseas votes who don’t have to pay tax here
That’s a cynical take
That’s a bitter take.
Like a whiny spoiled child who doesn’t get their way.
No party in the MMP era outside Labour/National had ever won more than 1 general electorate seat (i.e. besides the Maori seats) before this election. Now it looks like Act will win 2 and Greens will win 3… that seems like a significant moment.
Well fuck
Funnily enough there is probably a chance Chris loses
Fuck
Wow it sucks that TOP didn’t do better; but what sucks even more is that NZ Loyal got 1.15%; the crazys were out in force this year.
It’s looking like Blue Chris will win, a disappointing result for Red Chris.
Serious though, this is a huge shift from last election, almost a 25% drop. And it looks like Winnie will be out in the cold, thankfully.
It’s the least inspiring election I’ve ever seen. Literally had no idea who was the least worst option stepping into the booth
That’s the heart of it right there. There was simply no right choice.
I voted against TPM more than anything else really.
If you look at the cumulative votes graph, you’ll see there are a lot less voters this election. It makes me wonder what the shift would look like if everyone voted (or, what are the key demographics for people who don’t vote).
Younger people usually much less likely to vote, and also tend to vote for the left, especially Greens. So yeah, it would make a huge difference most likely.
Greens have done surprisingly well so far though, although largely at Labour’s expense, it seems.
They’ve done well, but I think they would really want to be in the 13-15% range. Still, looks like they’ll pick up 2-3 electorates, which would be huge.
I think co governance and Marama’s outburst really hurt them. Justifiably so.
Maybe, but I doubt that made much difference to people who were realistically actually going to vote for them. This will likely be their best result ever.
It’s amazing actually, the number of comments I’ve seen online from supposed green party supporters saying they don’t like them having a race quota, don’t support other aspects of their policies etc, but will still vote for them, is incredible.
Having said that, they do have some solid policies.
Do you think the old fucker will retire?
At this point, I think he’ll be a politician until the day he dies, he’s got nothing else. I don’t see him retiring in the next three years.
This is his life. He loves it, he’ll die before he gives it up.
Its seems like a lot of area seats were lost because left wing votes were split between labour and greens which allowed national to snag it.
Yeah, FPP for the electorate vote is kinda bullshit. Ranked preference would be way fairer
Absolutely needs to be STV, just like some (many? Most?) Local body elections.
I was about to try and point out that a party vote for greens is actually a party vote for a greens+labour coalition.
Then realised that you’re referring to electorate votes.
Derp.
Hmm, there does seem to be a reasonably strong break towards Labour in the later counted votes. It could mean National end up with as low as 38% (especially after specials). If TPM win 5 seats, there’d be 122 MPs with overhang. That could mean National/Act will fall just short of a majority and require support from NZF.
Which would be making a bleak situation comically worse. The ol’ Kingmaker ends up wielding a lot more power than the 1-ish% influence the people meant for him to have.
So going on how things changed as voters were counted, it would appear that the early voting broke more for Nat / Act, and then the day of voting broke for Lab / G. NZF & TPM stayed relatively consistent throughout the night. This makes sense, blue-collar working people are somewhat more likely to vote Labour than National, and are less likely to have time to get to one of the fewer advance voting posts, than the typically white-collar / retired voters who are somewhat more likely to vote for the right.
The vote totals have now tightened up considerably on whether National can form a government with just Act; such that I am interested to know how many overseas / special votes there might be, and if any of them have been counted yet. If there’s enough of them, and they tipped more Labour/Green than National then it might be enough to pull another vote from the right to the left, and given Parliament has an overhang this term Luxon would need to pick up the phone to someone to get an outright majority, at least on confidence & supply.
Another big talking point for me is that one in every twenty voters this election has no representation in Parliament at all due to the threshold requirements for minor parties.
Yeah that last point is fascinating.
Have you guys at least imported the democracy sausage tradition from the West Island, yet? It was super sporadic the last election I asked.
No matter the result, voting is never a total loss if you have at least had this.
I’ve never been at a voting place with a sausage sizzle.
Then again, I’ve always worked at a voting place (except this year because children).
