GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. How can we be less surprised by developments in machine learning? In this post, I’ll forecast the properties of large pretrained ML systems in 2030.

Thus in summary, GPT2030 could automate almost all mathematics research as well as important parts of other research areas, and it could be a powerful vector of misuse regarding both cyberattacks and persuasion/manipulation. Much of its impact would be limited by “oversight bottlenecks”, so if it could run autonomously for long periods of time then its impact may be larger still.