120,000 years. Why 120 thousand years? Did a little digging and that turns out to be roughly coinciding with the peak of the second-to-last interglacial maximum, known as the Eemian (the current being the Holocene).
And what do we know about the Eemian interglacial period? We have found some very interesting things. These things may not happen again, they may be wildly inadequate as predictors of future consequences of this global climactic shift. Nevertheless, although history doesn’t repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes.
From Wikipedia:
The Eemian climate is believed to have been warmer than the current Holocene.[8][9] Changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters from today (greater obliquity and eccentricity, and perihelion), known as Milankovitch cycles, probably led to greater seasonal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere.[citation needed]
During the northern summer, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 °C higher than in 2011.[10] The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape, Norway (which is now tundra) well above the Arctic Circle at 71°10′21″N 25°47′40″E. Hardwood trees such as hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.
At the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames.[11]
Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest, although inadequate precipitation caused a reduction in the forest cover in interior Alaska and Yukon Territory despite warmer conditions.[12]
The prairie-forest boundary in the Great Plains of the United States lay further west near Lubbock, Texas, whereas the current boundary is near Dallas. The period closed as temperatures steadily fell to conditions cooler and drier than the present, with a 468-year-long aridity pulse in central Europe at about 116,000 BC,[13] and by 112,000 BC, a glacial period had returned.”
Hippopotamus… in the Thames??
Trees on the southern edge of Baffin Island??
A 468-year long aridity event?
Fuck. Buckle up, this shit could get very very interesting. Turns out ecological recessions have winners and losers too, at this point we kind of have to wait and see which species have advantageous adaptations for the approaching climate conditions.
Fifty years from now we could be faced with replacing entire ecosystems for depopulated areas that have died out and burned off because the environment hasn’t been able to keep up with the pace of change. It’s possible that one of the best things we could do for the Amazon at this point is start propagating its dirt, its microbes, and its unique fauna & flora to other areas of the globe. It’s a genetic backup hard drive, we should use it as such
Fascinating and friggin’ scary. But then again, most of us today won’t be around to see it. We do however owe our future generations a conscious effort now to help them thrive in the changing climate. Very interesting idea you proffered re propagating the Amazon’s infrastructure.
Everyone gets old, my friend. Some survive to be older than they ever expected to be - we can’t assume that these are faraway consequences that will happen to faceless others.
I agree absolutely - we owe a debt to our future generations to try as hard as we can to avoid the worst of the potential consequences, and teach them the skills to survive in a world turning sideways. It’s strange, and scary. Those that will take care of us when we grow old might not have been born yet. Or, robots that will take care of us when we are old haven’t been built yet, as the case may be.
May we have the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
Thanks, I’m glad you liked the idea. I’m really just throwing concepts out into the ether with that Amazon biodiversity thing, but it feels like there could be something there. We can transplant and propagate far faster than natural selection can move populations of trees northwards.
Invasive species are already wrecking our shit left right & centre, let’s throw a bunch more species into the mix, move a bunch things simultaneously, and see if it steadies things out a bit. If we have statistical modelling, then why not use it to our advantage? Give plants & trees a head start, move them north and the animals will follow naturally
120,000 years. Why 120 thousand years? Did a little digging and that turns out to be roughly coinciding with the peak of the second-to-last interglacial maximum, known as the Eemian (the current being the Holocene).
And what do we know about the Eemian interglacial period? We have found some very interesting things. These things may not happen again, they may be wildly inadequate as predictors of future consequences of this global climactic shift. Nevertheless, although history doesn’t repeat itself, it sometimes rhymes.
From Wikipedia:
The Eemian climate is believed to have been warmer than the current Holocene.[8][9] Changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters from today (greater obliquity and eccentricity, and perihelion), known as Milankovitch cycles, probably led to greater seasonal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere.[citation needed]
During the northern summer, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 °C higher than in 2011.[10] The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape, Norway (which is now tundra) well above the Arctic Circle at 71°10′21″N 25°47′40″E. Hardwood trees such as hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.
At the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames.[11]
Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest, although inadequate precipitation caused a reduction in the forest cover in interior Alaska and Yukon Territory despite warmer conditions.[12]
The prairie-forest boundary in the Great Plains of the United States lay further west near Lubbock, Texas, whereas the current boundary is near Dallas. The period closed as temperatures steadily fell to conditions cooler and drier than the present, with a 468-year-long aridity pulse in central Europe at about 116,000 BC,[13] and by 112,000 BC, a glacial period had returned.”
Hippopotamus… in the Thames??
Trees on the southern edge of Baffin Island??
A 468-year long aridity event?
Fuck. Buckle up, this shit could get very very interesting. Turns out ecological recessions have winners and losers too, at this point we kind of have to wait and see which species have advantageous adaptations for the approaching climate conditions.
Fifty years from now we could be faced with replacing entire ecosystems for depopulated areas that have died out and burned off because the environment hasn’t been able to keep up with the pace of change. It’s possible that one of the best things we could do for the Amazon at this point is start propagating its dirt, its microbes, and its unique fauna & flora to other areas of the globe. It’s a genetic backup hard drive, we should use it as such
Fascinating and friggin’ scary. But then again, most of us today won’t be around to see it. We do however owe our future generations a conscious effort now to help them thrive in the changing climate. Very interesting idea you proffered re propagating the Amazon’s infrastructure.
Everyone gets old, my friend. Some survive to be older than they ever expected to be - we can’t assume that these are faraway consequences that will happen to faceless others.
I agree absolutely - we owe a debt to our future generations to try as hard as we can to avoid the worst of the potential consequences, and teach them the skills to survive in a world turning sideways. It’s strange, and scary. Those that will take care of us when we grow old might not have been born yet. Or, robots that will take care of us when we are old haven’t been built yet, as the case may be.
May we have the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, the courage to change the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
Thanks, I’m glad you liked the idea. I’m really just throwing concepts out into the ether with that Amazon biodiversity thing, but it feels like there could be something there. We can transplant and propagate far faster than natural selection can move populations of trees northwards.
Invasive species are already wrecking our shit left right & centre, let’s throw a bunch more species into the mix, move a bunch things simultaneously, and see if it steadies things out a bit. If we have statistical modelling, then why not use it to our advantage? Give plants & trees a head start, move them north and the animals will follow naturally