The issue is that you claim that a causes b. So at a, we can know that b will follow. Therefore we can identify b when we see a.
They say, a don’t cause b for certain. So at a, we can’t know that b will follow. Therefore we can’t identify b when we see a, as we could misidentify.
That is not defining the norm at all. That is pointing out that it is logically invalid to identify b at a.
Think about it like this, most people who are born will be 23yo at some point but not all. So while it is a fair assumption to assume that a child will be 23yo, it would be wrong to claim that it will be 23yo. So when the child is born, there is no way to determine whether or not a child will be 23yo. it probably will but it might not. The norm is still that the child will be 23yo, but that doesn’t change the reality that some won’t.
The issue is that you claim that a causes b. So at a, we can know that b will follow. Therefore we can identify b when we see a.
They say, a don’t cause b for certain. So at a, we can’t know that b will follow. Therefore we can’t identify b when we see a, as we could misidentify.
That is not defining the norm at all. That is pointing out that it is logically invalid to identify b at a.
Think about it like this, most people who are born will be 23yo at some point but not all. So while it is a fair assumption to assume that a child will be 23yo, it would be wrong to claim that it will be 23yo. So when the child is born, there is no way to determine whether or not a child will be 23yo. it probably will but it might not. The norm is still that the child will be 23yo, but that doesn’t change the reality that some won’t.