This data is courtesy of Dan Shapiro.
As there are only so many people and hours in the day, the market for human attention is finite. Hollywood is spending more money to make TV and movies, but its market share is declining. People, especially younger people, are far more likely to watch videos on the internet made by small creators. Needless to say, the small content creators’ costs are vastly cheaper. AI is rapidly making them cheaper still.
And it’s not just that small creators using AI-generation will displace Hollywood’s existing efforts; they are likely to create new artforms that will displace the old screen/broadcast formats of TV shows & movies too. AI-gen artforms, as yet uninvented, may be real-time rendered, personalized for individuals, hyper-niche, etc, etc
This is all part of a surprising trend with AI, its tendency towards decentralization. Some dommerist nightmares see all powerful corporations in the future, but as with open-source AI & robotics equalling the Big Tech efforts, the trend seems more for AI’s power to be dispersed.
A generation is 20 years. This bubble is not lasting that long.
Also by 2045 climate change will be actively destroying civilization so 🤷♀️
I mean, it already is causing some problems, looking at the dominant story right now, which for future people is LA burning.
Coincidentally, that’s also the year the agreement to not settle Antarctica expires.
I know how long a generation is.
The hype train of AI will have passed to a degree, but photography, painting, cinema and many other visual and performing arts will be impacted for generations and permanently reduced by a degree not yet known.
That’s alarmist. Painting? Really?
Also, kind of ignoring the climate elephant in the room. People entertaining each other in the ruins of civilization won’t be using AI much.