Alaska has been moving more and more democratic over the past decade or so but has been largely under most people’s radar
Democrats won Alaska’s at large house seat in 2022. There was also recently a major flip in the Fairbanks Alaska borough earlier this week a democrat won the mayor race despite it voting R+15 in 2020. Though Alaska does split their vote more than other states
Polling is rather limited in Alaska which makes it harder to tell exactly how things are going on for the presidental race. Some put Harris within striking distance. It’s possible for it to end up flipping this cycle or in the near future
Keep in mind that there have only been 3 polls in Alaska since Biden dropped out and one of those was a republican sponsored one
Yes it’s more likely than not that Trump wins alaska, but data is limited. It’s still a low but not a zero percent chance he doesn’t. Regardless of this cycle, it keeps moving closer each election and certainly could be a competitive state in the future for president