I think we need to take polls of Gen Z men with a massive grain of salt. Polling is already pretty fucked right now, but Gen Z is absolutely the hardest to poll.
Gen Z is the hardest to poll but when you’re polling within Gen Z specifically it seems like there isn’t a huge response bias - I believe the bigger issue you’re thinking about is that when intergenerational polling (i.e. a lot of presidential polling atm) is done there is a massive amount of error correction needed to properly scale response numbers from Gen Z - or Gen Z needs to be intentionally oversampled due to their low response rate - to avoid undercounting Gen Z…
There’s an additional complication that as the youngest voting cohort it’s difficult to predict how active they will be in voting. It tends to be that once you’ve voted a few times you’re much more likely to vote in future elections and its hard to predict with younger folks how active they were in the last election and how many new voters will be convinced to join the electorate.
That last point is why I constantly harp on about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, that seems to be a really important issue for Gen Z voters and if Dems have an underwhelming position (even if it’s clearly better than Trump openly calling to just genocide Palestine) then turn out will suffer and Democrats will underperform.
I think we need to take polls of Gen Z men with a massive grain of salt. Polling is already pretty fucked right now, but Gen Z is absolutely the hardest to poll.
Gen Z is the hardest to poll but when you’re polling within Gen Z specifically it seems like there isn’t a huge response bias - I believe the bigger issue you’re thinking about is that when intergenerational polling (i.e. a lot of presidential polling atm) is done there is a massive amount of error correction needed to properly scale response numbers from Gen Z - or Gen Z needs to be intentionally oversampled due to their low response rate - to avoid undercounting Gen Z…
There’s an additional complication that as the youngest voting cohort it’s difficult to predict how active they will be in voting. It tends to be that once you’ve voted a few times you’re much more likely to vote in future elections and its hard to predict with younger folks how active they were in the last election and how many new voters will be convinced to join the electorate.
That last point is why I constantly harp on about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, that seems to be a really important issue for Gen Z voters and if Dems have an underwhelming position (even if it’s clearly better than Trump openly calling to just genocide Palestine) then turn out will suffer and Democrats will underperform.