Yes it’s hard to take the cheating, voter suppression, and coup-ing into account statistically. I wasn’t really advocating for the author or prediction. Just wanted those elements of the article when I saw the post.
Yeah, but his last prediction was 100% wrong, or his current one is…
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election in the United States, amidst widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters for incumbent president Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with “better chances,”[36][37] Lichtman denounced that demand as a “foolish, destructive escapade,” accusing “pundits and the media” of “pushing” the Dems into a losing choice. He added that “all” those calling for Biden’s resignation have “zero track record” of predicting election outcomes.[38] By July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race, adding that he will serve out the remainder of his term.[39]
Also, his keys aren’t supposed to need frequent reevaluation based on fine-grade events, so if they predict she’d win now, they should have predicted she’d win last month. The only information that’s been revealed is there wasn’t a “primary” challenge for the eventual nominee.
At least there’s a spoiler at the top of the article. He’s taking Harris and his L of the past 10yrs was Bush v Gore.
Yet more signs pointing to Trump’s path to victory being to cheat and coup instead of trying to win votes legitimately.
Yes it’s hard to take the cheating, voter suppression, and coup-ing into account statistically. I wasn’t really advocating for the author or prediction. Just wanted those elements of the article when I saw the post.
Yeah, but his last prediction was 100% wrong, or his current one is…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Lichtman
So if he’s right with this prediction that Harris wins, his last L was just like a month ago.
That wasn’t a prediction, he just said Biden had a better chance of winning in 2024 than Harris.
Since that is now an alternate timeline, we will never know if he was right.
Keep in mind that he doesn’t try to predict who will poll better, in fact he thinks polls are irrelevant.
Also, his keys aren’t supposed to need frequent reevaluation based on fine-grade events, so if they predict she’d win now, they should have predicted she’d win last month. The only information that’s been revealed is there wasn’t a “primary” challenge for the eventual nominee.