Democratic strategists and organizers are hoping that if 2024 presidential nominee Kamala Harris performs well in the November election, there will be a down-ballot effect in gubernatorial, U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. Democrats have a small majority in the Senate, while Republicans have a sing...
Dems almost won the house on an off year in 2022, there hasn’t been a significant level of gerrymandering between then and now (just standard levels).
How could the democrats loose the house?
Voter suppression
Overconfidence in voters leading to low turn out.
Watch NY Dems fuck it up (again). More seriously I think it’s very likely that the presidency and the house will move in the same direction. Gerrymandering and the electoral college both favor the GOP in the same way. Even in 2016 when Dems won the popular vote by a mile, the GOP still took both the house and the presidency.