- cross-posted to:
- usa
- cross-posted to:
- usa
As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.
That 1.5-percentage-point lead is within our average’s uncertainty interval, which you can think of as a sort of margin of error for our polling averages.
It’s a little weird that they say Harris is “tied” with trump, even though she’s ahead by 1.5%. That seems like a big deal. Margin of error is important, but it’s just factually true that Vice President Harris is up by an average of 1.5%.
I looked back at how 538 treated polls when trump was up by a similar amount:
https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-after-presidential-debate/story?id=111610497
In 538’s national polling average, Trump now leads by 1.4 percentage points over Biden, while the two candidates were just about tied on June 27, the day of the debate.
So Harris up by 1.5% is actually “tied”, but trump up on Biden by 1.4% is “leads” (and explicitly different from “tied”!). No mention of margin of error in that paragraph.
🤔🤔🤔
The big thing here is that polls skew right. They have been for years. This is why Democrats have been winning again and again recently, by large margins. Young people don’t participate in polls. We don’t answer calls from numbers we don’t know. I know I’m calling myself “young” as an elder millennial, but compared to people who answer every call, I am young. That’s why polls skew right, then the election goes left. My generation and younger won’t pick up the phone for numbers we don’t recognize. We grew up in the tech world and know better. Boomers and GenX will pick up the phone and proudly proclaim their position. Recently polls have suggested that the right wing is ahead, yet they keep losing. Because they’re losers, and I’m happy that my generation is blocking that bullshit. I hope the younger generations keep up with ending totalitarian rule and will continue the fight against psychopathy.
Generally yes, but no reason to get complacent. A large number of young people are also skewing right, particularly young men.
Also, the amount of young men for idolize people like Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson is concerning, but nothing will be done to address it. Social media is just as bad for their appearance and mental health issues as IG beauty standards are for young women, ie mewing, etc.
Not only losers, they are weird
There are so many factors. I think raw polling numbers and single polls are problematic , and definitely need to be deciphered, unbiased, combined and aggregated by reputable pros (like Nate Silver and others). Then they actually gain value and accuracy.