This is the first poll taken after the conviction, and has us at 41% Biden/39% Trump
Actual voting preferences differ only slightly from one the same pollster took in early May, which had us at 35% Biden/36% Trump.
Having a solid sense of how the conviction will impact things will likely take a week or so as news percolates and people talk.
I’ll also note that these to polls are polls of adults, which tend to favor Trump by a little bit more than polls of registered voters or of likely voters.
Archived copies of the article: archive.today ghostarchive.org
This is your reminder that national polling doesn’t matter, and that you can win the presidency with roughly 20,000 votes
My rule of thumb is that Biden needs to be at about +4 after a likely voter screen to win.