Any reprieve from the rate pain will depend heavily on four developments:
- Higher unemployment (Next jobs report: July 7)
- Slowing GDP (Next GDP report: June 30)
- Tumbling core inflation (Next inflation report: June 27)
- Easing home values (Next real estate board reports: first week of July)
The BoC interest rate announcement on July 12 is probably pretty significant too. 😬
I’d be very surprised if rates went down in the next year or so and the bond market look to agree.