Even though most voters say that the case against the former president is “strong,” they don’t want to see him serving jail time
Even though most voters say that the case against the former president is “strong,” they don’t want to see him serving jail time
I admire your confidence but I’m not altogether sure it will go down like that. Given the cognitive dissonance in his voter base on the one hand and the cult of personality making plenty of his voters plain don’t care about anything he does, I think I’ll reserve judgement for now. If he gets convicted, does it even prevent him from running?
I recommend the realistic perspective offered by Teri Kanefield. I started following her on Twitter. Now she’s very active on Mastodon and as a blogger. [See @Teri_Kanefield or https://law-and-politics.online/@Teri_Kanefield or https://terikanefield.com/] Like her, I would say that I do not feel confident or optimistic, but I also try to avoid being fatalistic. I do not expect his most ardent supporters to change their views no matter what, but I do not think that they are anywhere close to 53% of the population. All I’m really saying is that I believe that after a trial, or several trials, the number of Americans wanting him to be pardoned would fall below half. It’s just a guess based on how little is known now. To be up front, I didn’t read the linked article, I’m only commenting on that 53% result. This poll was taken at a time when we have less information than we will at the end of trial(s). Also, if you just picture “ex-Pres Trump in jail” many of us squeal with glee but many Americans probably can’t picture it. Let’s say that during the course of the trial(s) there is discussion about how his incarceration might look—possibilities from supervised house arrest with media blackouts to some comfortable quarters within a secure military base. Talking about it makes the possibility take shape. Some portion of that 53% might be comfortable with the image of him playing golf, dressed in polos not orange jumpsuits, but restricted in terms of movement and communications.
In answer to your question, convicted felons are not prevented from running for president. One upshot of this is that political prosecution is not a thing in the US. We show our judgment when we vote, and that collective judgment is considered to be above all other factors. Obviously a large percentage of us have poor judgment, much of it based on disinformation. The solution to everything is voting, and convincing others to vote—particularly the cynical and low information types. Our media is personality driven but liking or not liking Trump, Biden, Kamala personally is so much less important than voting for democracy over fascism.