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    • kbrot@kbin.socialOP
      2·
      1 year ago

      Yep but did you get the far more important comment?

      “No rate cuts for two years”. Which sets up my (admittedly) distant option 2 as now the primary option… one final bull market before the secular bear, and the preservation of the ridiculous 4yr cycle for better or worse.

      2023 is confirmed as a 2019 building year. 2024 can be the fakeout to breakout 2020. 2025 (with rate cuts at some point) as the parabolic blowoff 2021.

        • kbrot@kbin.socialOP
          1·
          1 year ago

          Yeah there’s a little leeway. From the announcement of the cut, to the execution, to the final rollover there’s a warning period. 2008 was about a four month period to begin easing out of positions and prepare for the drop. It also had two “humps” to the cut cycle. The markets topped for good in between them.