I agree we’re probably past peak oil, but i think i disagree a bit on cities becoming more dense - i think video conferencing and remote work put much less impotus on people to congregate like we once did, and yes that likely will mean more strain on the roads, but i also think the electric cars will be more like a spreading out of electric storage and transmission than 100% used for transportation. (Again due to increasing popularity of remote work) having a store of electricity will be posh and help guard with the rolling brownouts due to climate change and terrorism interrupting the grid.
Cities being dense doesn’t have to do with work. It has to do with access to food and resources. Historically cities have always been dense. They’ve only stopped being dense temporarily because cars require tons of parking which spreads everything out. Sprawl is only possible if you have cars and cars reinforce sprawl. It’s a vicious cycle.
Even without peak oil, sprawl doesn’t work. Cities like Detroit failed because density is required to make cities economically viable. You need a minimum density to support the cost of infrastructure like sewer and roads. It’s just about the cost of shared resources. If you have more people paying for a sewer line it’s cheaper. At a certain point a sewer line becomes too expensive for a small group of people to maintain. This works with roads, internet, and other utilities. Cities are already collapsing due to sprawl and infinite oil wouldn’t save them.
I agree we’re probably past peak oil, but i think i disagree a bit on cities becoming more dense - i think video conferencing and remote work put much less impotus on people to congregate like we once did, and yes that likely will mean more strain on the roads, but i also think the electric cars will be more like a spreading out of electric storage and transmission than 100% used for transportation. (Again due to increasing popularity of remote work) having a store of electricity will be posh and help guard with the rolling brownouts due to climate change and terrorism interrupting the grid.
Cities being dense doesn’t have to do with work. It has to do with access to food and resources. Historically cities have always been dense. They’ve only stopped being dense temporarily because cars require tons of parking which spreads everything out. Sprawl is only possible if you have cars and cars reinforce sprawl. It’s a vicious cycle.
Even without peak oil, sprawl doesn’t work. Cities like Detroit failed because density is required to make cities economically viable. You need a minimum density to support the cost of infrastructure like sewer and roads. It’s just about the cost of shared resources. If you have more people paying for a sewer line it’s cheaper. At a certain point a sewer line becomes too expensive for a small group of people to maintain. This works with roads, internet, and other utilities. Cities are already collapsing due to sprawl and infinite oil wouldn’t save them.
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/5/14/americas-growth-ponzi-scheme-md2020