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  • kbrot@kbin.socialOP
    2·
    1 year ago

    With my only real remaining “event” being the fed rate cut and that being delayed now at least a year, it seems to align with a final bull run for crypto before a secular bear. By that I mean what I’ve theorized for a while – that BTC would have a new, lackluster top ~100k and ETH would have a grand blowoff $10k-15k – could happen in this timeframe.

    2019 (wave 1 bull, flat to dippy) – 2020 (wave 2 boring then parabola begins) – 2021 (wave 3 parabolic rise and disbelief blowoff top).

    2023 (wave 1 bull, flat to dippy) – 2024 (wave 2 boring then parabola begins) – 2025 (wave 3 parabolic rise and disbelief blowoff top).

    • Veltoss@kbin.social
      2·
      1 year ago

      Can we rely on market “traditions” like secular bulls/bears when crypto will just be getting it’s legs and becoming more of an actual utility with real businesses and ways to actually prove to the world that it is worth a damn right when you’re suspecting we enter a years long bear market? I can only imagine we’ll be seeing lots of great adoption over the next few years, we’re already seeing a lot of good development compared to previous bear market development. It would be like the dotcom bubble busting the moment people realized the internet actually isn’t worthless rather than the other way around.

      When I think of it like the dotcom bubble it feels more like the real crypto bubble hasn’t truly begun, or maybe I’ve had too much koolaid.

      • kbrot@kbin.socialOP
        1·
        1 year ago

        Personally, I’ve learned to keep the tech and the market separate in my mind as an investor.

        crypto will just be getting it’s legs and becoming more of an actual utility with real businesses and ways to actually prove to the world that it is worth a damn

        Unfortunately, we’ve been saying this for eight years now (I was around before the EEA press releases) and it just doesn’t seem to matter. The tech is always moving forward, but the market reaction to it from an industrial perspective is as cyclical as always.