- cross-posted to:
- chapotraphouse@hexbear.net
- cross-posted to:
- chapotraphouse@hexbear.net
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These polls are bullshit. Trump lost by 10 M votes, and he hasn’t converted any new friends. No new love for the man. Only deserters.
I have people in my life that are terrified he’ll win again. I keep telling them the same thing you said, he he lost in 2020 because people who weren’t hardcore MAGA saw him for what he is and didn’t want him to have a 2nd term. Trump certainly hasn’t converted any more voters to his side since 2020, most likely has lost a ton. People just need to make sure they get out and vote, and I think articles like this are meant to make people think it’s hopeless and stay home.
I’m not worried that Trump gained votes, I’m worried that Biden lost votes.
That is true and key. Voters do need to show up, this time as much as ever. If we had 50 M votes more, a huge lopsided victory, maybe, just maybe, the monster could be shoved back into its closet.
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn’t have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Michigan: Biden +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Minnesota: Biden +3 same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Biden +6 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/Pennsylvania: Biden +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Wisconsin: Trump +4, but same problem as New Mexico, it’s an old poll from November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
Trump wins, 278 to 260.
Biden needs to pick up +10.
He could do that in Wisconsin, which Clinton famously ignored in 2016 and Biden carried in 2020.
Same for Arizona, Clinton lost it in 2016, Biden carried it in 2020.
national polls are useless
Proceeds to make pretty much exactly the same point that Trump is slightly ahead…
I’m downvoting this article because you should note in your headline either that Trump is a rapist or an accused spy.
“Accused spy Trump …” see? not so hard.
