After weeks of burning through users’ goodwill, Reddit is facing a moderator strike and an exodus of its most important users. It’s the latest example of a social media site making a critical mistake: users aren’t there for the services, they’re there for the community. Building barriers to access...
The reddit admins are probably counting on it playing out more like the Twitter-Mastadon “migration” rather than the Digg-Reddit one. Twitter had a less technically literate user base than reddit, and there was a lot more friction in the ways the platforms differed. I think it’ll probably fall more on the Digg-Reddit side of the spectrum.
I’d probably guess 10% of this influx wont return to reddit, 40% will use both for at least a month or so, and the remainder will return immediately when the blackout is over (regardless of how it concludes). Where it goes from there is more unpredictable.