• zerfuffle
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    1 year ago

    Interceptions are common and, as the US puts it “routine” and “not seen as a threat.”

    Intercepts usually follow a basic script:

    Interceptor: “please go away”

    Interceptee: “I am conducting lawful military operations outside national airspace”

    The interceptor now pulls closer

    Interceptor: “go away”

    Interceptee: I am conducting lawful military operations outside national airspace"

    Repeat until one side gives in

    IIRC Russian and Chinese doctrine when they are the interceptee is to avoid escalation, but NATO doctrine is to stand behind the claim and push to the limit of international law. Similarly, when Russian and Chinese planes are the interceptor they expect NATO planes to avoid escalation, while NATO planes expect Russian and Chinese planes to follow them around until they push the border of territorial airspace. Thus, Chinese and Russian planes tend to escalate their interception because they perceived NATO plane behaviour as an escalation that they themselves wouldn’t do. Meanwhile, NATO planes see Chinese and Russian interceptions as increasingly aggressive because, by NATO doctrine, they’ve done nothing wrong. Neither doctrine is wrong, but the doctrinal mismatch is clearly causing problems because the other side doesn’t behave as expected.