In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
manifold.markets
47% chance. EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

This market is very active currently. Bets are piling up for Yes and No positions, so there seem to be strong opinions on both sides.

  • Arthur BesseMA
    1·
    1 year ago

    hard no.

    but, how are people making actual bets with criteria like “as long as it’s pretty good” without any defined arbiter?

    it seems like resolving that will require arguing with people who will say that attributes like coherency and continuity are not required for a movie to be “high-quality” and “pretty good”… which, actually, sure, human-made films can sometimes be good while lacking in those departments.

    but, the ones made fully automatically in 5 years certainly won’t be :)

      • Arthur BesseMA
        1·
        1 year ago

        lol, ok, that makes sense, thanks. (and, oh… that guy 🤮)

        also i see now this is a strictly play-money prediction market, i missed that at first.