"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
"The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”
As great as it would be if she won Iowa, this is the most obvious outlier poll that ever existed. Almost nobody’s even polling Iowa because it’s not close, and the few polls other than this one show Trump as a clear winner.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve been seeing thread after thread of these one-off polls and just general “there’s no way Harris can lose” mentality. She had a huge lead around the time she announced Walz, but it’s been downhill since then. Most reliable predictors have her losing at this point. That sucks, but it doesn’t help to pretend it’s not happening.
Do what you can to get Harris the win, but also consider what your options are if she doesn’t.
This is a BIG deal. Selzer was spot on in 2016, 2020, and 2022. This poll is the gold standard. Even if it’s off by 4 with Trump winning Iowa, which would be well outside Selzer’s typical margin of error, it would point to a huge herding and overestimation of other polls toward Trump in the Rust Belt. If this is spot on, this election would probably have Harris win with the biggest landslide since 1988.