• vividspecter@lemm.ee
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      3 months ago

      The latest polls are now showing Harris slightly ahead (even to 4% lead). But it’s way to early to make any strong conclusions.

      I’m certainly looking forward to their election predictor coming back up once the nominee is confirmed.

      • istanbullu
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        3 months ago

        it’s just one poll, could be noise. pollsnfrom the last few months consistently showed trump ahead of harris.

        next 3-4 weeks will give a good overview with multiple polls.

    • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
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      3 months ago

      538, by design, lags behind the latest polling, because they’re intentionally smoothing out the numbers. Trends - if they’re real - will take time to express themselves as a result.

      The key takeaway here is that these numbers are still very good for the Dems, because Trump is at his absolute ceiling in popularity. He’s coming off of a strong debate performance and nearly being killed. That’s as good as it gets for him. The American public isn’t going to grow to like him as they get to know him more; he’s dominated political discourse non-stop for the last eight years. There’s no room left for him to grow.

      Kamala, on the other hand, has a lot of room to grow. That doesn’t guarantee that she will, but it puts all the initiative in her hands. There’s still time for the Dems to play this wrong, but also a lot of space for them to play it right.