- Russia’s gas giant Gazprom won’t recover gas sales lost to the Ukraine war for at least a decade.
- A study seen by the Financial Times says pre-war export volumes will return by 2035.
- Gazprom will likely lose its leading role in Russia’s energy sector over time.
According to the IEA, China’s coal demand will peak in 2024.
Sinopec only claims coal peaking in 2025.
Sinopec also claims peak oil happened in 2023.
Moreover, that peak gasoline has already passed due to the EV transition.
According to CREA, China’s emissions are set to fall in 2024.
The Washington Post corroborated this general message, even if it did not give an exact date.
Even intuitively, this makes sense: emissions growth are tied to economic growth (particularly in construction), so if the construction sector is in structural decline then emissions should decline with it. If the economy is not growing, then emissions should fall. If the mix of primary energy sources pivots towards renewables, emissions should fall.
This is entirely independent from whether the capacity exists: you can study this entirely from the demand-side because everyone knows renewables are the most cost-effective option on the supply-side.