“Opinion”. Yeah, to be honest I’m kind of over reading opinions.
Four years is not very long in a climate poised to undergo a phase transition unless we are able to reverse course very sharply. The IPCC is clear on this.
Is it? Bush withdraw from Kyoto protocol, Trump already withdrew from PA. This game just became a predictable cycle, a bit like El Niño, the rest of the world got used to the unreliability of bipolar USA, which reduces their negotiating strength. Meanwhile regarding ambition for future emissions, what matters most for the next set of targets at COP30 is China and India (the former at peak due over-construction, and higher per-capita than Europe, the latter relatively low, but set to rise fast if there is no change of direction). We can wait out USA (but please sort out your bipolar system) - 4 years is not long in climate.
We are at 1.5C, we are at the find out stage and the climate can change a lot in 4 years
Sure it will, there’s a lot of inertia and feedbacks in the system, some kicking in recently although there’s nothing physically special about 1.5oC. Also, as well as CO2, emissions of CH4 rise fast, while those of SOx fall. My point is rather that people (especially anglophones) tend to over-estimate the importance of USA in world affairs. What matters is that the rest of the world gets on with transitions.
