The mean of the bootstrapped estimates of the tipping time is 〈tc〉 = 2050, and the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095.
…
Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications, it is important to monitor the flow and EWS [early warning signs] from direct measurements.
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the 95% confidence interval is 2025–2095
Looking at the date this article was published, it’s possibly worse than this makes it seem. This was submitted in March. If we look at the sea surface temperature graphs for this year you will see from March this year it goes crazy.
Why is it, this concerns me more than most parents I know? I don’t have any kids to worry about, I think it would be nice if the human race kept on after I go… I just don’t understand where the alarm is on this issue with normies? They just don’t seem to give a shit.
All those wankers in Parliament, they nearly all have kids and families as well (Bozo has at least 8) and none of them have lifted a finger. I guess they think the oil money will save them or something.
It’s a very broad range. These predictions are usually too conservative. For years we’ve seen these predictions occur much sooner than expected.
strong societal implications
That’s one way of putting it.
What does this even mean
The North Atlantic Drift Current is a conveyor belt of warm water that comes from the Gulf Stream down in the Caribbean up to NW Europe. This keeps our climate warmer than it should be for its latitude (Canada, for example. We are further north than Mongolia).
Global warming is having effects like melting the Greenland ice sheet, which is pumping vast quantities of fresh water into the North Atlantic which has serious effects on the NADC. It’s already unstable and could “switch off” pretty quickly. The ironic knock-on effect would be that global warming would make the UK colder. Quite what that would mean is unclear but it is likely to see lower rainfall and a big drop in productive farmland.
Previous models suggested this wouldn’t happen until the next century but this model suggests it is most likely to happen in the middle of this century with the 95% confidence limit suggesting any time from late Inthis century down to… well the day after tomorrow.
Was that an intentional reference at the end there to the film where a sudden ice age overwhelms the northern hemisphere, cos if so, nicely done.
It wasn’t planned but as I was drawing to the end of the sentence I realised it would work nicely as 2025 is right around the corner. That isn’t to imply that a film based on alien-botherer Whitley Strieber’s book is an accurate prediction of future events but it amused me.
Explain in Minecraft terms
You may have me there. I have a reasonable grasp of Geoscience but my knowledge of Minecraft is limited to a quick early game or two and whatever my nephew has said to me about it (he showed me a house he’d designed with a zombie trap built in).
The New Scientist have a good piece summarising arguments for and against.
The Guardian has a pretty readable article on it if you’re not up for reading the paper.
Here’s a snippet:
A collapse of Amoc would have disastrous consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and west Africa. It would increase storms and drop temperatures in Europe, and lead to a rising sea level on the eastern coast of North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
Im glad I’m not the only one.
Best get the big coat out and on standby.
That’s the spirit!
