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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • I do not believe in fate.

    You should stop assuming things because you’re not very accurate with your assumptions.

    Do you want to speculate if the rounds fired are hand loaded or factory made? Maybe this specific batch of rounds had black pepper instead of gunpowder? Maybe the hammer will break just as he’s about to shoot, what are the chances of the executioner having a stroke or an aneurysm? maybe your mom would be your dad if she had balls. And your grandma would be a bike if she had wheels.

    I’m not going to debate elementary school level statistics with you. Option A and C both will give you ~33% chance of survival. But for you specifically. I’d recommend option B, for all of our sake.


  • For instance, in the case of 4/6, one must assume the bullets include 2 sequential empty chambers

    No. One must not assume that. You are trying to make all the assumptions that benefit you. A certain bald spot somewhere. A bias in the mechanism that they know about, somehow it’s also about capitalism bla bla bla. You put a lot of effort into purposefully misunderstanding how simple statistics work.

    And no. If you survive the first pull. You are LESS likely to survive the second. Not more.

    It’s still the same 5/6 chance. But you having to get that chance multiple times in row makes it less likely the longer you go on. And the math will have it so after 6 times. It comes out to about ~33%

    How you feel about it on a philosophical level doesn’t change the reality around you.

    You can choose which ever option you feel more comfortable with. And that’s ok. But it’s not going to change how statistics work.



  • The previous shots do matter. Because for you to even reach the 6:th shot, all previous attempts have to be in your favor.

    It’s (5/6) you’ll live each pull. But to reach pull #2 you’ll have to survive the first. To reach pull #3 you have to survive the first 2.

    You’re looking at events that have to take place is a specific order. You have to multiply each pull to work out the probability of this event following one of those orders. It will come out to (5/6)^6.

    (5/6) is the probability you survive. And ^6 because you have to survive it 6 times.

    You’re looking at ~33% of getting empty slots 6 times in a row.

    Previous attempts always have a bearing on statistics if things need to happen in a certain order.