Forgive me for my very simple-minded view of it, but the way I see it, unless another country makes a direct move against China, they won’t do anything. Why? For the same reason the US didn’t with the USSR: They’ve got time and resources. They can simply cash the US out.
They can let the US take this or that region. Every puppet means more resources spent on them to prop up the regimes and quench the inevitable rebellions. China is an ancient nation and like most ancient nations (like Iran, Saudi Arabia and many others), they can afford to think in terms of decades instead of fiscal years. They’ve got time.
Meanwhile the US, like the USSR, will spend money on a war that will. Never. Come. But unlike the USSR, their money is not well-spent. Soviet equipment is proving its quality in Ukraine, where not just due to familiarity, but also quality is what makes the Ukrainians not very fond of the Western-provided arms. The USSR had a comparatively smaller military expenditure, yet managed to stand toe-to-toe with the ‘mighty juggernault’ of Capitalism that spends more money in corporate R&D that goes nowhere and bloated top-heavy elite brass than with actual, practical things. I daresay the M1 Abrams was the last good, militarily speaking, thing that came out of their military projects. Maybe overengineered and expensive to maintain, but it would be naiveté to say it is useless or weak. After that, it’s been just expensive things impressive to look at, would be nice in a propaganda video game or movie, but have no practical use fighting anything bigger than armed Middle-Eastern civilians.
China has time.
The US is doing its best to turn Taiwan into a second Ukraine and force China to intervene.
Indeed, but the thing is… okay, they may arm them to the teeth, put nuclear missiles there and then… what?
They’d need to make a first move. Otherwise they’d be spending money supplying yet another puppet overseas - money they’re quickly running out of. So either they or Taiwan will have to strike first or the US has to do that and hope nobody will mind (we know a lot of brainwashed lumpenproletariat will even support it), but then face the music.
China knows that, and I think even some of these ‘think’-tanks Washington pays to sit on their areses and shit out propaganda know it.
Taiwan is a part of China. If the US pushes Taiwan into declaring independence China will have no choice but to forcefully assert its sovereignty over the island. That is a political imperative. From a military perspective US missile bases on Taiwan are just as unacceptable for China’s national security as NATO missile bases in Ukraine are for Russia.
You place too much importance on the bad optics for whoever strikes first. Public perception is not that relevant, and the Western public doesn’t care and is easily swayed by the media. And the US can always find justifications or ways of convincing its people that it had to. Or it can escalate provocations until China has to react and then the US will act like the victim.
Russia acted correctly in pre-emptively intervening in Ukraine before the Kiev regime launched its attack on the Donbass. It is better to be proactive and take a hit to your image than be maneuvered into a strategically disadvantageous position due to fear of being seen as “the bad guy”. China will do its best to avoid having to enter into open conflict as long as it can because time is on its side, but it may not be able to avoid it forever.
Oh, I agree with that, absolutely. Although Russia did argue it didn’t intervene in the previous eight years precisely since it’d be vilified - they waited until there was no other choice. Still, I think it’ll be harder to turn Taiwan into an Ukraine - not even because of China, but the island itself is also losing profits. And its capitalists have their own interests to consider.
I think there won’t be a war simply because everyone knows that the only scenario where China “loses” is one where the world as a whole loses. The US may huff and puff, but unless Dementia Joe or some other crazy idiot doesn’t decide to do anything stupid, it’ll end with a sigh.
Russia was unprepared both economically and militarily in 2014 for a full scale confrontation with the collective West. And it was still holding out hope that the Minsk agreements would be fulfilled. Both of those factors had changed by 2022.
I hope you’re right about Taiwan. I for one don’t see the US giving it up without a fight. At minimum i believe they will try to destroy as much of Taiwan’s economic potential as possible if it becomes clear that reunification is inevitable.
The Banderites are doing the same to the parts of Eastern Ukraine which it is clear they cannot hold on to: they are demolishing everything that they can’t have. The US will likely destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industries one way or another before they fall into Beijing’s hands.
Not that that will matter. Mainland China’s own semiconductor manufacturing will by then have already caught up with or surpassed Taiwan’s.
I only feel bad for the Chinese people in Taiwan, because like you said, chances are that even if what I think will happen turns out to be how it’d go (the US leaves after a long, expensive standoff - maybe even a skirmish), they’d take everything not bolted to the floor as “compensation” and poison the population one last time in the hopes China would have to handle some small insurgency even after they’re long gone.
I was thinking more like they would plant bombs in the factories and detonate them if PLA troops try to take them.
