If we could prove that 1) Simulations are possible, 2) we would survive and learn how to build them, and 3) Simulations would be built and run. Then the chances are high that we live in a simulation.
But I always thought why would we be simulating the whole history of the planet, we would be simulating from the present to the future to predict possible outcomes.
But if I had a computer capable of simulating just what I live sped up so that I could live many times in the simulation, I might do that after getting tired of superhero simulations, just to see what I do in those virtual lives. Let’s assume we enter a simulation, removing our memory and making it as immersive as it can be, without any indicators that we are in the simulation.
Now let’s suppose we live in a simulation, and get to the point at which we can simulate our lives in the simulation, and we enter another simulation, and that keeps happening simulation after simulation. How would we ever know, when we go back, if we are in base reality? We can’t.
Now, knowing this I would never do that, and since I don’t see any indicators that I’m on a simulation or have memories I shouldn’t, I’m sure I haven’t created the simulation. I could still have made the simulation warn me only before entering another simulation. Like “you are on simulation level 2 or 3, are you sure you want to enter a new simulation?”
The closer we get to full dive VR the more this scares me. We may not know what we look like in real life, or what our values are or even our specie. We might have gotten tired of simulating our specie and tried with another.
I see this scenario as much more likely than whole world simulation since the computational power required is much smaller. By the time we manage to simulate the whole world there will have been so many small simulations that the chances that we live in a whole world simulation are very small.