if the methodology used to reach this article’s conclusions are reliable, then the implications are very concerning.

  • @Neers94@lemmygrad.ml
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    312 years ago

    China’s population is massive, and yes, it’s elderly also consist of a large portion of that. However, I’d hesitate from concluding that this will lead to economic collapse, as arguably the demographic situation is much worse in south Korea, and they haven’t experienced any significant downturns or slow downs yet. People like to bring up Japans stagnation as happening because of demographics, but mostly it happened due to the collective west pivoting to china for manufacturing, as well as there being a deliberate effort to weaken the Japanese economy by the US (Japan used to be seen as china is now, a competitive economic power that might overtake the US, this obviously scared many in the US, and since Japan is basically an occupied puppet state, they prevented this from happening).

    • @quality_fun@lemmygrad.mlOP
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      12 years ago

      the main consequence is having so many elderly people dependent on the younger generation, cutting down on overall productivity.

      • @Neers94@lemmygrad.ml
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        102 years ago

        Yes, but the effects of that are very overblown in every economy. Even in South Korea, which doesn’t have a strong safety net especially for the elderly, their economy is chugging along okay.

          • @Neers94@lemmygrad.ml
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            2 years ago

            I wouldn’t say it’s an outlier, no. Don’t get me wrong, these types of demographic issues DO have a serious effect on economies, I’m just saying that the effects that many project for china are incredibly exaggerated and come from a false understanding of the stagnation in Japan and some European countries. China’s economy isn’t going to collapse because of demographic change, I don’t think it will stagnate either. Will it slow down in growth because of it? Yes, I think so.

            South Korea has had a shrinking birthrate for the past 15 years, and it’s even exceeded UN estimates on declining populations and birth rates. It’s elderly are rapidly growing, currently nearly a quarter of SKs population are elderly. By the most negative estimates, it will experience seriously devastating demographic collapse within the next 15-20 years if things don’t change. But the “outlier” in SK is that despite all this, it’s economy is still growing and is still projected to grow, unlike Japan, a country who has and still is going through similar issues. This is mostly because SK has had a steady stream of heavy foreign investment since it’s inception as a nation, and there are massive corporations that soak up this investment and basically control everything about the countries economy and politics. There’s a Korean word for these companies but I forgot it, but they’re basically like the old Japanese monopolies that had significant influence over the Japanese empire.

            As with most capitalist countries, the poverty in Korea and falling standards of living are hidden by the massive growth of the richest in the country. I’m sure the demographic collapse is going to hit regular Koreans the hardest, but the economy, and the oligarchs will likely chug along fine.

            • @rngzz@lemmygrad.ml
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              62 years ago

              I think the words for Korean consortiums are among the likes of “you can’t avoid tax, death and Samsung when born in Korea”

              • @Neers94@lemmygrad.ml
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                42 years ago

                Ha, no I was referring to the Korean term used for the massive companies in Korea. In Japan the word is/was the Zaibatsu, there’s an equivalent word in Korean. Although I might be talking out of my ass idk.

              • @Neers94@lemmygrad.ml
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                2 years ago

                Yes, but I don’t know of much solutions that could “solve” the issue. Because china has such a massive population, encouraging birthrate growth probably isn’t a great idea. China is already spending a lot of money on food imports to feed it’s population because domestic produce simply isn’t enough (it’s also cheaper to import food), this also applies to other goods as well. The massive boom in population in the early 20th century put a large strain on the economy, and was the primary reason for the one child policy. I think planning for having to account for a less productive, smaller labour force in the future through a greater focus on more productive machinery and automation, and to make robust safety nets and social services for the elderly so they aren’t so reliant on their children is all you can really do. China, like South Korea, is still going to be able to soak in foreign investment, and it’s economy is still going to grow. And unlike SK, it’s demographic projections aren’t as drastic. I think it’s inevitable there will be slow down in china’s growth, but making sure that slowdown isn’t drastic is the goal.

                • @quality_fun@lemmygrad.mlOP
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                  2 years ago

                  elderly care is itself an industry, isn’t it? perhaps needing younger labourers to care for them isn’t as drastic an issue as it may seem. it still presents an opportunity cost, but as you say, automation is another tactic.

  • Is it necessarily a problem if the population would shrink over generations? Isn’t it normal for people to have fewer children as their material conditions improve? I might be naive, but at that point, I’d imagine China would be by far the most technologically advanced nation, and they wouldn’t need a huge military (in terms of people) or a huge number of general workers

    • Sankavara Gardens
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      72 years ago

      Is the less children with improved material conditions thing true? I’d like to read more up on that.

      • I’ve read about it before, but I don’t know of any specific reliable studies. I’ve heard numerous explanations – improved access to contraception, better chance of children surviving into adulthood (so there’s no need to have many children to increase the chance of at least one surviving), state-sponsored elderly care (in some countries), etc. For capitalist countries specifically, many people have less time to spend on raising children because they need to work

    • @quality_fun@lemmygrad.mlOP
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      32 years ago

      a smaller population is not necessarily a bad thing - after all, as seen with literally any country other than china and india, a country does not require over a billion people to exist - but it can lead to stagnation, especially from too many elderly people.

    • @quality_fun@lemmygrad.mlOP
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      12 years ago

      the overall population being smaller does not change the existing ratio of dependencies, namely the elderly who cannot contribute as much to the country and rely on younger workers who could otherwise be working more productive jobs.

      • lemmygrabber
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        2 years ago

        As long as the population is not constantly decreasing, which it most likely will not and will stagnate or rise at some point, the ratio of elderly to productive will eventually normalize. The elderly are not immortal.

  • SovereignState
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    92 years ago

    Tangential but I know the KPRF has in its platform that the “demographic crisis” in Russia is an existential threat that has to be curtailed thru incentivizing more births. They have some shit lines otherwise, but with comrades ITT pointing out that slowing birth rates are not necessarily correlated to stagnation, I’m curious what peoples’ thoughts are on the line.

    • @Shrike502@lemmygrad.ml
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      72 years ago

      TBF this is something many parties in Russia talk about, including the United Russia (the one in power). IDK what the situation in China is, but AFAIK the demographic crisis in Russia is indeed real and something that needs to be addressed. Keep in mind that the 90’s had left a massive hole in demographics, and according to the official statistics the only regions with a positive population growth are Caucasus republics.

      Of course the situation would have been easier if there were less cutthroat libs in the government.

      • SovereignState
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        62 years ago

        Thanks for the context comrade. From my understanding China is implementing monetary incentives for newlywed couples as well as potentially new parents. Libya did something similar with something like a $40k grant to new families or something. It’s not a bad idea at all, I was certainly curious as to why it seemed a major talking point of their platform and if maybe Russia’s demographic crisis is truly a crisis relatively to these other nations.

        • @Shrike502@lemmygrad.ml
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          42 years ago

          Happy to help! Interestingly, the Russian government had also implemented similar measures - it’s called “Motherhood capital”. Basically you can get a certain sum of money (I forget how large) for giving birth (and keeping the child). It used to be just for a second child, I think they’re aiming to make it for the first as well. The money is intended to be used for things like buying baby-related necessities, investing in education or living conditions.

          However, there’s also an increasing trend of privatisation of medicine and education, both of which negatively impact the willingness of people to procreate. Not to mention concerns further down the line, i.e. landing a job or military service.

    • @knfrmity@lemmygrad.ml
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      52 years ago

      I can’t remember the source but I can probably dig it up. I remember reading that China reported fewer deaths overall during 2020 and 2021 than previously. The west had a huge number of excess deaths due to the pandemic and I think related economic issues. Accurate numbers on the global south are hard to get.

    • @Leninismydad@lemmygrad.ml
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      42 years ago

      Generally, as countries advance in their social and economic development, their populations will boom (many people, even poor people, will see some form of positive financial growth, this opens up people to having more children), but then as time moves on, population growth will stagnate. This is induced by many factors but really boils down to the influence capitalism has on human psychology, it’s not healthy for humans to exist in a capitalist society, and no matter where you are, no matter the country, that will eat at you in time, consumerism rots your brain and makes you feel like shit. It’s the general social malaise everywhere you go. I’m sure most people have heard, especially younger folks “why would I bring kids into this fucked up world” it’s a rampant mindset and it’s what we are fighting against as communists.