1st Primary of the season (Iowa was a Caucus, not a primary… different creature).
Please direct all posts and comments related to the primary to this megapost!
Edit Polls closed at 8 PM Eastern
99% of Republican ballots are in:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/new-hampshire-president-results
Donald Trump - 54.4% - 176,157 votes - 12 delegates
Nikki Haley - 43.3% - 140,440 votes - 9 delegates
8:11 PM Eastern, MSNBC declares Trump the winner. Haley’s share of the vote has been continually dropping all night.
8:23 PM Eastern, Haley has conceded, but remains in the race.
MSNBC has predicted Joe Biden wins the Democratic primary by write in.
99% of Democratic ballots are in:
Biden - 79,470 (65.5%)
Phillips - 24,315 (20%)
Write Ins - 7,884 (6.5%)
Williamson - 4,933 (4.1%)
South Carolina is the next one that counts on 2/24. Haley’s home state, polls are showing her losing 60/20 more or less.
I’m torn on the Nevada primary which is next, coming up on February 6th.
Nevada is doing BOTH a primary on 2/6 and a caucus on 2/8. Nikki Haley is choosing to only participate in the Primary but not the Caucus.
Problem: The Primary is entirely performative, the delegates get assigned by the Caucus in which Haley is not participating.
No matter how well she does in New Hampshire, it seems she self selected out of Nevada. :(
But let me know, if you want a Nevada megapost, I can set it up!
New Hampshire primary history:
2016 Primaries:
Donald Trump - 11 Delegates - 100,735 votes - 35.23%
John Kasich - 4 - 44,932 - 15.72%
Ted Cruz - 3 - 33,244 - 11.63%
Jeb Bush - 3 -31,341 - 10.96%
Marco Rubio - 2 - 30,071 - 10.52%
Chris Christie - 0- 21,089 - 7.38%
Bernie Sanders - 15 delegates, 152,193 votes, 60.14%
Hillary Clinton - 9, 95,355, 37.68%
2016 General:
Clinton - 348,526 - 47.62%
Trump - 345,790 - 47.25%
2020 Primaries:
Donald Trump - 22 Delegates, 129,734 Votes, 84.4%
Bill Weld - 0 - 13,844 - 9.0%
Bernie Sanders - 9 Delegates - 76,384 Votes - 25.6%
Pete Buttigieg - 9 - 72,454 - 24.3%
Amy Klobuchar - 6 - 58,714 - 19.7%
Elizabeth Warren - 0 - 27,429 - 9.2%
Joe Biden - 0 - 24,944 - 8.4%
2020 General:
Biden - 424,921 votes, 52.71%
Trump - 365,654, 45.36%
It’s been called for Trump: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4424478-donald-trump-wins-new-hampshire-gop-primary-nikki-haley/
That was narrower than I thought it would be.
Trump is going to win. Unless maybe there’s more students than other people.
It’s going to be interesting to see how it pans out. One recent poll had Trump at 40% and Haley at 40%, but that was before Desantis and Ramaswany dropped out.
Read in Wapo today that Trump gained ground. Their poll was like 57% for Trump. They also had a question “if you don’t vote for DeSantis, who would you vote for” and 2/3rds said Trump over Haley. Poll was obviously before Ron dropped out
Edit: Trump was at 52%, Haley 34%
Some background:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/22/trump-leads-new-hampshire-post-monmouth-poll/
The poll finds 52 percent of potential primary voters supporting Trump, while 34 percent are backing Haley. In the poll, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is at 8 percent
If DeSantis’s supporters in the poll are allocated based on their second choice, Trump’s support rises by four points while Haley’s increases by two points.
Haley’s support has nearly doubled from 18 percent in November, appearing to benefit from the withdrawal of former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. But Trump’s support has grown by six percentage points over the same period
While Trump leads Haley by 18 points among all potential voters, his advantage grows to 28 points among voters who say they are “extremely motivated” to vote
Haley’s favorability ratings have declined among New Hampshire potential GOP primary voters: 46 percent of them are favorable
Trump’s favorability rating is 23 points net positive, with 59 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters rating him favorably and 36 percent unfavorably
Dixville Notch is in, they always vote first at Midnight Eastern.
Haley wins 6-0.
https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-dixville-notch-2024/46486001
Dixville Notch as a predictor:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-voting-primary/
"On the Republican side, pundits and observers have taken note of Dixville Notch voters’ historic tendency to side with the eventual GOP nominee, a trend that began in 1968 and persisted with startling accuracy in every presidential primary until 2012.
But the voters have also been out of step with the broader electorate, especially in years with competitive Democratic primaries. In 2020, Michael Bloomberg won Dixville Notch with three write-in votes, while Bernie Sanders and John Kasich picked up the most votes in 2016."
Biden won as a write in.
