The frontline there has hardly moved since before the SMO. Novobakhmutovka sits between Avdiivka and Toretsk-Niu York, both of which are major strongholds with rail lines safely hidden behind the rear. Very unlikely Russian forces will have any success in storming these positions head on. It will be more productive to slowly encircle similar to what is happening in Bakhmut, which as we know, can take months.

Novobakhmutovka opens up a kit of possibilities towards Toretsk. It is next door to the highest points in the area around Oleksandropil. Taking these positions, it will be possible to follow the highway north and encircle Toretsk on the west side; cauldron is already developing in the east due to Bakhmut offensive. I think this where Russia will apply more pressure, not in Avdiivka yet.

But the new offensive could change everything, it’s hard to tell.