Eric Zuesse An obliquely-written news-report in the New York Times on January 18th headlined “U.S. Warms to Helping Ukraine Target Crimea” and subheaded “The Biden administration is considering the argument that Kyiv needs the power to strike at the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.” It reported that, “the Biden administration is finally starting

It’s absolutely amazing that you think that paper supports your argument. Let’s just look at a few polls from it:

A mere 15% of the people in Crimea consider themselves Ukrainian

Majority of people think that if they had to choose than Russia would be the economic bloc that Crimea should be in

Vast majority of people have positive view towards Russia

Meanwhile, the poll about autonomy in Ukraine is taken before 2014 when Ukraine decided to start doing ethnic cleansing.

I honestly can’t tell if you genuinely believe you own bullshit, or if you’re just trolling intentionally.

@pingveno
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Oh, believe me, it’s immensely fun trolling you, but I wouldn’t make a claim without backing it with at least something. I’ll just limit my claim here to this: the Russian referendum result of 90% is pure nonsense.

A mere 15% of the people in Crimea consider themselves Ukrainian

This is true, but leaves out a very important flip side: a mere 40% consider themselves Russian, hardly enough to form 90%. As I pointed out earlier, 15% are Tatars, who suffered ethnic cleansing at the hands of Russia’s predecessor, the Soviet Union. I kind of doubt that group has warm fuzzy feelings towards Russia, eh?

Majority of people think that if they had to choose than Russia would be the economic bloc that Crimea should be in

A lot of factors go into this answer, so drawing additional inferences based on the answer is premature. Case in point: Crimea is physically closer to much of Russia’s population, so from a practical standpoint there is likely more trade opportunity. Also of note, 17% chose Europe and 22% chose N/A or Don’t know. Only a tiny majority chose Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Hardly enough to support that 90% claim.

Vast majority of people have positive view towards Russia

Yup. But they also didn’t show negative views towards Europe or the US for the most part. You could argue that the 2014 revolution changed all that, but unless you have other data that I haven’t seen it would be without evidence. And no, Russia’s fake referendum does not count as data.

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@pingveno
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The counterfactual that I’m arguing against is that referendum that Russia conducted had a result that made any sense. For that to be the case, people heavily favoring Russia would need to total up to the 90% that was supposedly the result. I don’t know enough about Crimea to argue about whether 50% might want to be annexed by Russia, so I’m not going to try.

Edit: It’s worth noting that Russia now has a pattern of behavior where they invade a region they wish to annex, hold a sham referendum that gets some absurdly high approval, and then the Russian Duma approves a law claiming the region for Russia. Now that Ukraine wants their territory back, the state media line is that they are threatening to invade Russia. And when that happens, get ready for some nuclear saber rattling!

That tiny majority is 53%.

Yup, and that is an incredibly slim majority to base an annexation claim on, especially when the question is economic. It hardly shows overwhelming fondness for Russia that would definitively translate into 90% support for annexation just a year later. As for Brexit, arguably the UK should have never left the EU without a strong majority. There is a reason why big decisions often require a supermajority.

Oh, believe me, it’s immensely fun trolling you, but I wouldn’t make a claim without backing it with at least something. I’ll just limit my claim here to this: the Russian referendum result of 90% is pure nonsense.

It’s not pure nonsense because referendum happened after a coup and after Ukrainian nationalists started murdering people on the streets. If you don’t understand how that might firm up public opinion in Ukraine where majority of people consider themselves Russians what else is there to say about you.

This is true, but leaves out a very important flip side: a mere 40% consider themselves Russian, hardly enough to form 90%. As I pointed out earlier, 15% are Tatars, who suffered ethnic cleansing at the hands of Russia’s predecessor, the Soviet Union. I kind of doubt that group has warm fuzzy feelings towards Russia, eh?

The question wasn’t regarding whether 90% of people consider themselves to be Russian, but whether they would rather be part of Russia or Ukraine run by nationalists. This is the lack of intellectual honesty I’ve come to expect from you. Also, absolutely hilarious that you pretend to speak as if you know the first thing about what people in Crimea actually think.

Yup. But they also didn’t show negative views towards Europe or the US for the most part. You could argue that the 2014 revolution changed all that, but unless you have other data that I haven’t seen it would be without evidence. And no, Russia’s fake referendum does not count as data.

I’ve presented you with other data many times on this site. You continue to ignore it and act as if I haven’t done so. Go clown somewhere else. Nobody is buying your shit here.

@pingveno
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I refuse to accept the results of a clearly fraudulent referendum. I was incorrect on the official result: 97% in favor with a 83% turnout. That’s pure nonsense. It smacks of someone who was like “Eh… 100% is probably too extreme, we should smack a few percentage points off.” Do you actually believe that? Crimea may be legitimately in favor of being part of Russia. I don’t know. But it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the referendum was invalid.

Your opinion on the validity of the referendum notwithstanding, it is an undeniable fact that vast majority of people in Crimea would prefer to be part of Russia. Given that is the case then it very clearly does make sense for Crimea to be part of Russia. On what possible basis could you argue that Crimea should be subjugated by Ukrainian nationalist against the will of the people of Crimea?

@pingveno
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I might be much more willing to accept that if any sort of valid process was followed and if the results didn’t stink of a rigged election. I think it’s completely legitimate to demand that the peace process includes certain guarantees on the part of Kiev. I know that a feeling of neglect, abuse, and internal rivalry had been an issue for years. Those are solvable problems. They’re not problems that should ever have been solved by an invasion or mock election.

Your own source clearly shows that vast majority of people in Crimea were in favor of this. What you keep dancing around here is that the west did a color revolution in Ukraine that overthrew the legitimate democratically elected government and replaced it with right wing nationalists. It’s absolute clown shit for you to claim that you care about some legitimate process while ignoring that.

@pingveno
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Your own source clearly shows that vast majority of people in Crimea were in favor of this.

Maybe they were, and they clearly deserved a better central government than they were provided. But if that was the case, they could have held a legitimate referendum on their own.

What you keep dancing around here is that the west did a color revolution in Ukraine

Whenever I ask for or try to find proof of that, all that I ever see is a single conversation that very much does not provide evidence that the West did anything of the sort. They were at most involved in some king making in the stability that followed the Euromaiden revolution. It feels like more of the typical “all anti-(Chinese/Russian/communist) sentiment is faked”. It’s just really sad that you’re completely denying the agency of millions and millions of people because you hate the US.

Maybe they were, and they clearly deserved a better central government than they were provided. But if that was the case, they could have held a legitimate referendum on their own.

Except that Ukraine did not afford them the opportunity to do that. They literally were not given an option to hold a referendum on their own.

Whenever I ask for or try to find proof of that, all that I ever see is a single conversation that very much does not provide evidence that the West did anything of the sort.

I’ve repeatedly provided you with detailed references to this in many prior conversations. The west was actively involved in funding the coup and selecting the government afterwards. Plenty of western sources document these events. Meanwhile, you’re the one who is actually denying agency of people in Donbas and Crimea who rebelled against the nationalist regime in western Ukraine because you hate Russia. Stop projecting please.

I’ve provided you with detailed population breakdowns in Ukraine before that clearly show that people in the east and west have wildly different views and identities. You try to homogenize the people of Ukraine to make your inarrative work.

Watch this video that CNN broadcast about what the regime you support was doing to people of Donetsk back in 2014. This is what you stand for. https://twitter.com/paulius60/status/1611148483859255296

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